About Snow Day Chance

Snow Day Chance is a lightweight tool that estimates the likelihood of a school closure based on a local weather forecast and a few common “disruption factors” (snow amount, temperature, wind, and timing).

I built it because winter mornings can turn into a logistics puzzle fast: work schedules, transportation, childcare, and after-school plans. This is meant to help adults make a more informed call on “how likely is a disruption,” not to replace official announcements.

This site is not an official forecast, and it is not affiliated with any school district, government agency, or weather provider.

How the estimate works

The calculator uses a simple scoring approach. You enter a location and a few weather inputs (or use the forecast-assisted defaults when available). Those inputs get translated into a rough “closure risk” score and mapped to a percentage.

It’s intentionally conservative about uncertainty: forecast changes, microclimates, plow readiness, and policy differences can all swing outcomes.

What tends to matter most

Snow amount + timing: Overnight accumulation before the morning commute tends to have the biggest effect.
Temperature and wind: Very cold wind chills can create safety concerns, especially for morning travel and bus routes.
Ice: Even small amounts can cause outsized disruption.

What this is not

Not a guarantee of closure (or opening).
Not a substitute for official district communications.
Not a real-time alerting system.

If you’re making safety decisions, rely on your local alerts and official guidance.

Audience & disclosures

Who it’s for: Adults planning around winter weather — parents, caregivers, staff, commuters, and anyone coordinating schedules.

Not directed to children: This site isn’t designed for use by children under 13.

Affiliate disclosure: Some links may be affiliate links. If you purchase through them, the site may earn a small commission at no extra cost to you.